Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[JK22]

Robotiseringen av krigføringen er for lengst i full gang. 

Neil Hauer on X: "Yesterday I had the rare opportunity to speak with infantry from Ukraine's 14th Brigade. They had just returned from a 90-day posting in Novoekonomichne - one of the hottest parts of the entire front. Their commander, 'Bobruk,' had some very interesting insights. Thread: https://t.co/hVJcqj6wgN" / X

Yesterday I had the rare opportunity to speak with infantry from Ukraine's 14th Brigade. They had just returned from a 90-day posting in Novoekonomichne - one of the hottest parts of the entire front. Their commander, 'Bobruk,' had some very interesting insights. Bobruk and his team had just completed 90-day rotation, basically on the zero line/gray area the entire time. Surviving this was almost a miracle. They now had just five days off (mostly still in Donetsk oblast) before heading back - the lack of manpower is that bad. Units are all tiny now, on both sides. Bobruk's team deploys mostly in pairs, and Russians come in ones or twos. 'Even three soldiers together is already enough to almost guarantee a (FPV) drone strike,' Bobruk said.

Armour has nearly disappeared from the battlefield. Tanks, IFVs and heavy vehicles are all but absent now. 'We saw enemy armour literally three times total in 90 days,' Bobruk said. 'It's only men now - just meat.' When major Russian assaults do come, they are almost exclusively by motorbike. Bobruk told of one Russian assault with 112 (!) motorbikes involved, each carrying two soldiers. These are rarely successful. 'Barely ten of these 224 Russians survived,' he said. 

Pro-Russian civilians supporting the enemy is a huge problem in these frontline villages. Bobruk tells one story of two locals in a building to their west warmly greeting Russian soldiers and welcoming them in, allowing them to use their apartment. This meant that his team, which had been largely holding in place, was now suddenly flanked from their left. 'Many, many cases of this,' he says. 'Everyone still left in these places (near the front) are pro-Russian - many actively help them. We are constantly endangered by them. Russians are now increasingly using civilian clothing in attempts to bypass positions. Very common just to see one or two Russians dressed casually and just wandering around. This has even led to ambushes on his team by men they had presumed were civilians.

Bobruk doesn't believe that any major Russian offensive is coming this fall. 'They are already doing all that they can, throwing meat constantly. They don't have the forces, and armoured vehicles don't have the same effect as they did earlier in the war.'

Det er blitt helt umulig å presentere noe som helst - det russiske gjennombruddet nordvest for Poltovsk rystet begge sider fordi det var altfor få som brøt gjennom uten oppfølgning som meies ned, og det var ikke mulig å lansere motangrep slik at en langsom nedslitting av de fiendtlige styrker som talt få tusener på et område på størrelse med indre Oslo var blitt det eneste alternativet. Etter dette realisere russerne og ukrainerne at det hadde ikke bare stivet opp, men blitt umenneskeliggjort som et resultat av robotteknologi med bakkedroner, FPV-droner i sverm, skjulte fiberoptiske droner, AI-styrte dronefly og speiderdroner med massiv uforstyrret kommunikasjon pga. Starlink. Det er så mange FPV-droner som nå kan lande og vente på signal, i likhet med fiberoptiske droner som kan vente i evighet på evigheter fordi de få strøm gjennom tråden, at alle er nødt til å skjule seg. Det er blitt selvmorderisk å bevege seg ute i det åpne. 

Det gjør at numerisk forhold er blitt ubetydelig, russerne kan ikke mer sende ut mange menn, for tyngre transport for ildstøtte og logistikk vil bare sprenges i småfiller. Ukrainerne kan holde stand med langt færre menn, trolig bare få hundre menn per 10 km - men de kan knapt presentere mye i møte med russernes droner og artilleri. I det minst er russernes bruk av glidebomber opphørt, effekten utebli hvis man bare treffe to eller tre soldater om gang, til fordel for traff inn i dybden. Og der har ukrainerne med vestligdesignerte bomber en sterk fordel. Det er ikke engangs lenge mulig å sende ut menn i kontinuerlige bølger fordi det trenges logistikk - som invitere fram angrep på egne transport opptil 20 km dypt i egne territorium.

Droner ser nå alt, hører alt, og angripe alt. 

Robotene har overtatt slagmarken.