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Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]


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Kahuna skrev (14 timer siden):

For hva da? Amerikanske lover for ytringsfrihet går ganske langt. Det er rett og slett lov å være et ufyselig nett-troll i USA. 

Samarbeid med fiendtlige stater? Ulovlig samarbeid/korrupsjon med politikere i USA?

Det ble jo nettopp avslørt at Musk har koordinert sensur på Twitter med Trump-kampanjen. Akkurat det samme som han beskyldte demokratene for å gjøre med Hunter Biden-saken, bare at her er det reelt og direkte samarbeid om å sensurere på vegne av Trump.

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Putin knytter sterkere/bekrefter bånd til Iran:
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russias-putin-begins-visit-turkmenistan-says-kremlin-2024-10-11/

Summary
- Putin invites Pezeshkian to Russia for official visit
- Iran and Russia close to signing strategic treaty
- US concerned over closer Iran-Russia ties
- Washington accuses Iran of supplying missiles to Russia

Hva gjør egentlig vesten for å stagge Iran?
Burde vi i vesten vurdere å angripe Iran?

Man frykter jo at Russland skal hjelpe Iran med å få fatt i atomvåpen:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2024/sep/14/alarm-in-uk-and-us-over-possible-iran-russia-nuclear-deal

Det ville være katastrofe om Iran fikk atomvåpen.

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Fram til mars 2024 var russerne sterkt hemmet av sitt sambandsutstyr som var generelt dårligere enn ukrainsk, og dette hadde vært en av det ukrainske forsvarets beste fordeler. Men så bli alt helt plutselig snudd opp-ned, kritiske viktige våpensystemer som HIMARS og Patriot samt S-300 ble tatt ut med hjelp av speiderdroner og spesialenheter som hadde et minimalt tidsforbruk ned til bare sekunder. Samtidig begynte russiske feltenheter å utnytte støtteildkraften langt bedre enn ventet, de kan deretter kalle inn artilleri - eller mer riktig Su-34 piloter - som med hjelp av speiderdroner kunne finne og sikte inn ukrainske motstandsreder. Det er dette som fulgt til de store tilbakeslagene i dette året som gjør at ukrainerne drives tilbake, det ville ikke ha hjulpet med et regn av glidebomber eller nye taktikk som skildret i diverse medier om det ikke skje med avansert kommunikasjonsteknologi. Det også fulgt til store og voksende tap - og enorme russiske tap som vel, da offiserene blir mer dristig og selvsikkert med deres kjøttkvernangrepene. 

Russia’s forces are illegally using Starlink terminals against Ukraine - The Washington Post

DONETSK REGION,

Ukraine — Russian forces have become deadlier and more agile with the help of illicit Starlink terminals, allowing them to use satellite internet to enhance coordination during assaults, fly more drone sorties and batter Ukrainian troops with accurate artillery fire despite U.S. efforts to stop the flow of technology.

The terminals, which give commanders live battlefield views with drones and secure communication between soldiers, are subject to prohibitions that outlaw many U.S. electronics from reaching Moscow.

Yet there is a burgeoning black market of Starlinks bringing the terminals to Russians on the front and their proliferation has been an important factor in Russia’s recent gains during its offensive, Ukrainian soldiers said.

Tens of thousands of Starlink dishes form the backbone of Ukraine’s military network, fueling devices vital to fighting a digital war — one of the few advantages Kyiv has against Moscow’s bigger, if less modernized, force.

Six Ukrainian soldiers and officers from different units across the Donetsk region told The Washington Post that Russia has closed the technology gap, making its forces more cohesive and boosting the number and precision of attacks. The issue has renewed Ukrainian frustrations over Elon Musk, SpaceX’s mercurial chief executive.

Some of the soldiers criticized Musk by name, saying his company has not done enough to crack down on illicit use and casting doubt on his desire to fix the problem, saying he appears to have favorable views toward Russia.

SpaceX provided free Starlink connection to Ukraine after Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022 but then threatened to cut service following online spats with diplomats, citing the high costs.

Musk relented under public pressure and then sent the bill to the Pentagon, the most recent totaling $14.1 million for six months of service through next month.

Musk was also widely condemned in Ukraine following reports he denied Kyiv’s request to allow Starlink access for sea drones in a planned 2022 attack on Russia’s Black Sea Fleet.

His biographer Walter Isaacson also wrote that Musk sought counsel from the Russian ambassador to the United States and was worried he would play a role in a destabilizing escalation.

Having access to reliable strong internet on the battlefield through Starlink transformed Ukrainian operations, changing what used to take precious minutes of radio chatter into seconds of taps and swipes on tablets brimming with detailed maps and chat programs.

The connectivity allowed leaders to guide assaults with live drone feeds, tweak artillery coordinates by viewing impacts and assess where enemies may be their most vulnerable to attack.

Drone video shows Ukrainian forces destroying a Starlink terminal used by Russians near Novohrodivka, according to a Ukrainian platoon commander. (Video: The Washington Post)

Russians troops had mostly relied on radios to communicate what they see and do during battles, a slow back-and-forth compared to fast internet, and they were much more rigid by comparison. Except now Russians have mirrored Ukraine by using Starlink in similar ways, Ukrainian soldiers said.

They just overpowered us,” said an officer in the 72nd Mechanized Brigade, which defended the Vuhledar area since 2022 and recently had to withdraw.

He described the Russian use of Starlink as one of the important factors, along with manpower and weaponry shortfalls, that hastened the fall of Vuhledar this month.

Like others interviewed for this story, he spoke on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to reporters. Kyiv and Washington face difficulties solving the problem of Russian use of Starlink, analysts have said, especially in light of Moscow’s success in sidestepping sanctions and the technical challenge of denying access to the Starlink network without affecting Ukrainian troops.

The U.S. and Ukrainian governments are working with SpaceX to “prevent Russia’s illicit use of Starlink terminals in occupied Ukraine,” including focus from the U.S. Treasury Department on “potential sanctions violations” related to the international smuggling effort, said Lt. Col. Charlie Dietz, a Defense Department spokesman. SpaceX referred to a post on X in February that said it deactivates terminals if used “by a sanctioned or unauthorized party.”

The Pentagon and SpaceX did not offer specifics on U.S. efforts, including how many illicit terminals used by Russian forces have been taken offline. Treasury declined to comment.

Terminals everywhere Before Starlink revolutionized the market, previous generations of field satellite terminals suffered from low speeds and high prices. Now users can buy terminals for a few hundred dollars and pay monthly fees for service in more than 100 countries and territories, not including Russia, according to Starlink. Users point terminals at the sky and connect to broadband internet from one of the 7,000-plus satellites in low earth orbit.

The U.S. government increasingly relies on the service for its military operations. “That has been revolutionary for us,” said Clare Hopper, head of the U.S. Space Force’s Commercial Satellite Communications Office.

Starlink terminals have expanded across Russian positions all year, but only in the past few months have their effects been really felt, as Russian troops on the offensive use them to coordinate assaults.

Ukrainian troops flying reconnaissance drones near Novohrodivka, southeast of the strategic Donetsk city of Pokrovsk, described seeing Starlinks in the Russian lines starting last month.

Before, the Russians couldn’t control some of their movements, maneuvers, artillery, infantry,” said a drone platoon commander with the 93rd Mechanized Brigade who provided just his first name,

Eugene, in line with Ukrainian military protocol. Intercepts of Russian radio transmission showed soldiers often reported incomplete or wrong information to commanders. That has changed, Eugene said, according to observations of enemy tactics. “Now they will only improve, and unfortunately, that’s what’s happening across the board,” he said. ‘Gentlemen, I recommend!’

While Russian companies and individuals are not authorized to sell Starlink, a gray market has emerged, fueled by the high demand from military forces and private buyers. The Post reviewed four of the many Russian sites offering direct sales for the “special military operation,” the Kremlin’s euphemism for the war. Most sell through Telegram and start their journey in the Moscow area, before being funneled to the front. One site offers a terminal and connection fees starting at just above $1,000.

Customer service is free, and each client receives recommendations “to minimize risks of blocking,” the page notes, with glowing video testimonials from soldiers. “We have been using Starlink for about a month. No complaints, the speed is good,” one review said, showing a terminal covered in camouflage. “Technical support works great.” “The internet is flying, the men are happy,” another said. “Gentlemen, I recommend!”

To activate a device, users need a foreign phone number, email and bank account to pay the monthly subscription fee, prompting suppliers to seek out people willing to lend their identities.

Users in “client support” Telegram chats say it is easy to buy and register Starlink kits abroad. Most are obtained in Europe and transported through the United Arab Emirates. One page warns not to activate the terminal in Russia.

One supplier advised that connections for devices bought in the European Union could be blocked after 90 days of usage, suggesting one solution is to register using Ukrainian details. Hard to shut down Starlink can both disable individual terminals based on their ID numbers and block areas from receiving signal, a practice called “geofencing,” the Federal Communications Commission told a U.N. regulator this year.

One person familiar with Starlink said that the company is technically capable of identifying the location of active terminals based on their pings up to satellites, but that it can be challenging to discern the user in the “forward edge of the battle area,” where Ukrainian and Russian troops are operating.

Stacie Pettyjohn, defense program director for the Center for a New American Security, said the U.S. effort to curb Russia’s use “doesn’t seem like it’s been hugely effective,” partly because of the shifting front lines. “Ukrainian forces are in Russia now. Where exactly are the front lines?” she said. “If there’s a line drawn as to where it works and where it doesn’t, you’re basically fixing the front lines where they are and preventing the Ukrainians from going on the offensive.”

Ukrainian troops, for their part, said they also had concerns over denying access in geographic regions because it may shut their own terminals down. As it is, the troops entering Russia as part of August’s incursion suddenly found their terminals not working because of the geographic restrictions.

Significantly, they soon found workarounds to get the Starlinks online again — probably the same methods Russians have deployed. Interrupting the software update process and tweaking GPS settings can get it working in Russia, said a Ukrainian drone pilot operating there. There are other viable methods to control illegal terminals, said Todd Harrison, a senior fellow and space security expert at the American Enterprise Institute.

One possibility, he said, is for Kyiv and Washington to collect terminal IDs and provide them to SpaceX, with direction to deny access to anything else. ‘It is something that kills us’ Ukrainian soldiers have not yet seen evidence that any of these control methods have made a dent.

If anything, the use of Starlink is increasing in Russian operations, said Ihor Romanenko, a retired Ukrainian lieutenant general. In recent weeks, large drones have been recovered with terminals inside, a new feature that keeps them connected to a pilot, he said, allowing them to aim with increased precision or be redirected to a better target. “Unfortunately, this is partly due to Elon Musk’s favorable attitude toward this,” Romanenko said.

On the ground, Ukrainian soldiers target enemy terminals on sight. In the late spring, after Russian forces advanced past Avdiivka, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed dishes atop a coke plant, said Tymofii, a drone pilot with the 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade. He noted that the Russians clearly had enough dishes to give out to individual teams rather than just commanders. “They have a lot of them … they use them the same way we do,” he said.

Russian use of Starlink is not the only factor that has helped Moscow claw its way toward Pokrovsk, a key logistics hub in Donetsk, but it clearly played a role, said Alexander, a battalion commander also in the 47th, criticizing what he said has been an inadequate response to preventing Russian use. “It is something that kills us,” he said.

Så min mistanke om Starlink-bruk av russerne er ENDELIG BEKREFTET etter et helt FORDØMT HALVT ÅR!!! 

Jeg fikk umiddelbart mistanke fordi det er svært lite sannsynlig at russerne kunne skjerpe sin sambandsevnen så brått og så raskt samtidig som man fikk rapporter om Starlink-terminaler på avveien gjennom Emiratene. Nå er det opplysninger om at terroristorganisasjoner har fått tak på Starlink-terminaler som også benyttes i andre kriger som i Sudan og Burma, det er nå svært tydelig for alle at SpaceX har helt mistet all kontroll med sin kommersialisering av Starlink, som startet for alvor i 2023 tross skarpe advarsler om å legge det ut i sivilmarkedet. 

Nå er Starlink blitt en alvorlig trussel mot USA, NATO - og NORGE. SpaceX har vist seg meget motvillig med å stoppe disse illegale Starlink-terminalene som burde kunne nøytraliseres. Vi har mistet mange ukrainske soldater, våpen verdt flere titalls milliarder dollar og fått større sikkerhetsmessig ustabilitet fordi SpaceX ikke ville ha streng regulering av Starlink-terminalene. Så hvorfor i all verden hadde ikke Biden grepet inn?

Det kan bli tragikomisk om Starlink brukes for å angripe amerikanske mål! 

Og; da ukrainerne oppdaget at de kan bruke Starlink-terminaler i Russland gjennom manipulering av funksjonene, må det dermed betyr at det ikke er mulig å hindre uautoriserte Starlink-bruk i avsperrede områder - som eiendommen med det hvite huset for eksempel... 

Endret av JK22
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Sitat

De færreste hadde hørt om årets nobelprisvinner, men årets pris til japanske Nihon Hidankyo går rett inn i dagens pågående kriger i Europa og Midtøsten.

Sitat

Nihon Hidankyo er en grasrotbevegelse av overlevende etter atombombenedslagene i Hiroshima og Nagasaki.

https://www.nrk.no/ytring/en-nobelpris-med-en-tydelig-advarsel-1.17079887

Denne kommentaren er bra, men inneheld ein merkeleg påstand:

Sitat

Det er ikke noen kontroversiell pris. Komiteen gikk ikke direkte inn i Midtøsten-krigen, som fort kunne skapt overskrifter. Men den blir også med det noe mindre umiddelbar aktuell. 

Krigen i Ukraina og dei stadige russiske atomtruslane burde vere problemstillingar som var "aktuelle" nok. Alliansen mellom Iran, Nord-Korea og Russland, der dei to fyrstnemnde kan få russisk hjelp til å utvikle sine eigne atomvåpenprogram er også ei "aktuell" problemstilling som er bekymringsverdig.

Endret av torbjornen
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Det har blitt spådd Russlands økonomi kollaps siden 2022, men ingenting har skjedd. Helt ærlig, så ser ikke jeg hvordan det kommer til å skje. Før krigen, så var Russland allerede et fattig land. Ikke hungersnød fattig, men ikke noe velstand heller. Så uansett sanksjoner mot Russland, så vil de alltid klare seg. 

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ForTheImperium skrev (33 minutter siden):

Det har blitt spådd Russlands økonomi kollaps siden 2022, men ingenting har skjedd.

Du må forstå det at dette er en langsom prosess, russland gjør alt de kan for å holde hodet over vannet så dette vil selvfølgelig ta lang tid, de har mange ressurser på sin side, men de blør konstant og fortsetter de sånn som nå så vil det på et eller annet tidspunkt få et voldsomt problem, at ingenting har skjedd vil jeg gjerne se noe dokumentasjon på.  

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