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Coronaviruset i verden: Nyheter og diskusjon


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0laf skrev (14 minutter siden):


Eldre mennesker dør oftere enn yngre mennesker, det er et faktum, syke mennesker dør enda oftere.

Unge mennesker blir alvorlig syke av COVID-19, ikke like mange av de som eldre mennesker, og de færreste dør ettersom yngre mennesker tåler sykdom bedre enn en åttiåring med tre andre sykdommer, men unge blir kritisk syke og trenger pustemaskin de også.

For de aller fleste går det åpenbart helt fint, enten man er ung eller gammel, hadde dødsraten vært over 50%, slik at de aller fleste døde, så hadde vi nok sett helt andre reaksjoner.

Likevel, det er et svært smittsomt og aggressivt virus vi bør forsøke å bekjempe, ikke satse på å overleve.

Det blir som å si at vi alle bør få ebola, 60-70% av yngre, friske mennesker overlever ebola, så de aller fleste overlever jo, så det er ikke noe problem ... helt til man ligger i koma og blør ut av alle kroppsåpninger, før man kanskje er en av "de fleste" som til slutt overlever.

Unge som gamle blir alvorlig syke av covid-19, ja. Unge har også dødd, deriblant legen som advarte mot viruset i Kina, han var 34 år.

Så er spørsmålet hvor syk man egentlig blir, inntrykket mitt er at det er som en heftig influensa for mange, eller en kraftig forkjølelse, jeg tror de fleste havner i den kategorien. Så har man de som blir skikkelig dårlige, og noen som ikke merket så mye til det, og kanskje avfeide det som en mild forkjølelse, og de er etter min oppfatning i mindretall.

Så langt er det bare 42 på sykehus, og sannsynlig er flere tusen smittet til nå, og mange har vel hatt dette i godt over en uke nå så da bør vel sykehusene fylles opp snart, skal vi tro den værste pessimismen.

 

Endret av Simkin
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Benbjo skrev (1 time siden):

[...] Jeg spør igjen, hvorfor tror folk at det er store mørketall av folk som blir smittet og er syke i 2 uker minimum uten å bli testet? Italia tester mange og kun 1/4 tester positivt. Jeg får det ikke til å gå opp at det er mørketall. At det er mange i inkubasjonstiden eller første sykdomsuke er klart. Men disse blir plukket opp når de må legges inn. 

Hvorfor mener du at 1/4 tester positivt sier noe om mørketallene???

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En overlege uttalte seg vel i media og korrigerte helsemyndighetenes intensivsengeplasser over land og strand for noen få dager tilbake i tid, til å kun være 800 intensivsengplasser (ikke 1200 eller flere som ble oppgitt tidl.)

Det der "Møte for norsk intensivpersonell om covid-19 epidemien" er det en som nevner litt om overlevelsesrate etter 30 dager i respirator for forskjellige kategorier omtrent 4t og 43 minutter inn i møtet. Det nevnes også at de alvorlig syke behøver lengre tid enn 30 dager med pustehjelp i så så mange prosent av tilfellene.

Det nevnes også akutt nyresvikt som inntreffer hos de alvorlige tilfellene. Og det blir en dobling av dødeligheten om dette inntreffer.

Nevnes også ulike behandlingsmodaliteter:

Ulike-behandlingsmodaliteter_COVID-19.thumb.JPG.016374ede2d43f86be2720c8688a50b6.JPG

 

Behandling ved tidlig funn av ARDS

Behandling-ved-tidlig-ARDS.thumb.JPG.e4eb5a81deca29c98d6072e17264ccf2.JPG

Endret av G
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Gjest d6e8f...265

Folk har ropt mye om å stenge grensene for den ene og andre men jaggu ble de redde og helt stilt da det først skjedde

Anonymous poster hash: d6e8f...265

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48 minutes ago, Elgen-Hansi said:

FHI sier IKKE at asymptomatisk syke ikke smitter. At 2/3 får asymptomatisk sykdom er et veldig grovt anslag, uansett om FHI har brukt dette eller ikke, siden det er infomarsjon man rett og slett ikke vet enda, pga de store mørketallene vedrørende nettopp denne gruppen. At relativt få % må legges inn henger sammen med dette.

Men ok, tilbake til kilden du etterspør da, jeg får unngå å bruke FHI, siden du insisterer;

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=96b04adf_2

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0412_article

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf

Veldig gamle data i første artikkelen. Passer ikke med det vi ser i Italia nå. 

I den siste der står det jo svart på hvitt at asymptomatiske forløp var svært sjeldne (1-3%) så der gikk påstanden til FHI rett ut av vinduet hvertfall. 

 

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24 minutes ago, Simkin said:

Unge som gamle blir alvorlig syke av covid-19, ja. Unge har også dødd, deriblant legen som advarte mot viruset i Kina, han var 34 år.

Så er spørsmålet hvor syk man egentlig blir, inntrykket mitt er at det er som en heftig influensa for mange, eller en kraftig forkjølelse, jeg tror de fleste havner i den kategorien. Så har man de som blir skikkelig dårlige, og noen som ikke merket så mye til det, og kanskje avfeide det som en mild forkjølelse, og de er etter min oppfatning i mindretall.

Så langt er det bare 42 på sykehus, og sannsynlig er flere tusen smittet til nå, og mange har vel hatt dette i godt over en uke nå så da bør vel sykehusene fylles opp snart, skal vi tro den værste pessimismen.

 

Som sagt må du se på antall smittede for 7-10 dager tilbake. Rundt 200 da, som vil si at foreløpig er rundt 20% innlagt. 

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23 minutes ago, Elgen-Hansi said:

Hvorfor mener du at 1/4 tester positivt sier noe om mørketallene???

Nok engang, fordi forholdstallet ville vært langt lavere dersom det var store mørketall. De har testet 4 ganger så mange som er blitt smittet. Hadde mange flere testet positivt så hadde det vært mer sannsynlig at det var flere syke "der ute", men antageligvis har de funnet de fleste som har kommet til symptomfasen (så er det såklart mange som er smittet, men er i inkubasjonstiden). 

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Quote

The Guardian: Korona-krisen kan vare til 2021

Dokumenter fra Public Health England viser at de tror krisen som koronaviruset fører med seg kan vare frem til våren 2021. Dokumentene viser også at britiske helsetopper forbereder seg på at så mye som åtti prosent av britene vil bli smittet av viruset, skriver The Guardian.

Dokumentet tar også høyde for at så mange som 7,9 millioner briter kan havne på sykehus.

https://www.aftenposten.no/verden/i/pL54lE/direktestudio-koronaviruset

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4 minutes ago, Professor Balthazar said:

Vet ikke hva de sidene der har med dette temaet å gjøre. 

Klare bevis her at FHI bare rører: https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/sites/default/files/documents/RRA-sixth-update-Outbreak-of-novel-coronavirus-disease-2019-COVID-19.pdf

FHI påstår at 2/3 av de smittede ikke vil bli syke. Her står det at 1-3% ikke blir det. 

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23 minutes ago, Benbjo said:

Så 18% av de smittede dersom de antar at 80% blir smittet 

Fikk ca. 14,9 % når jeg regnet på det basert på 80 % smittede. Men, for all del så er 15 % høyt nok det vel. Tallet er jo fenomenalt stort uansett ?:roll:

Altså 15 % av den 80 % andelen..

 

Uansett. Listene daglig på worldometers blir lengre og lengre for hver dag. Helt ekstremt for 15. mars 2020:

Spoiler

March 15 (GMT)

  • alert.png UK: “As many as 80% of the population are expected to be infected with Covid-19 in the next 12 months, and up to 15% (7.9 million people) may require hospitalization” a secret Public Health England (PHE) briefing for senior NHS officials, seen by the Guardian, reveals [source]

    - “A year is entirely plausible. But that figure isn’t well appreciated or understood [...] I think it will dip in the summer, towards the end of June, and come back in November, in the way that usual seasonal flu does. I think it will be around forever, but become less severe over time, as immunity builds up,” commented Paul Hunter, an expert in epidemiology  [source]
  • 1 new case in Puerto Rico [source]
  • 5 new cases in Lithuania: all traveled abroad [source]
  • 89 new cases in Canada including:

     

    - 17 new cases in Alberta (3 in Edmonton and 14 in Calgary, with 2 believed to be community spread cases), bringing the total to 56. Alberta is closing all kindergarten-to-Grade-12 schools and daycares in the province [source]

    - First case in Kelowna (BC): a passenger on a flight from Vancouver to Kelowna [source]

    - 4 in New Brunswick [source]

    - 3 in Nova Scotia, all travel-related [source

    - 39 in Ontario [source]  marking the biggest single-day increase: 14 in Toronto, 5 in Peel, 5 in Ottawa, 3 in Hamilton, 3 in York Region, 2 in Waterloo, 2 in Durham, 2 in Simcoe-Muskoka, 1 in Niagara, 1 in Haliburton-Kawartha-Pineridge and 1  "pending." 

    - 3 in Manitoba, a man in his 70s, a woman in her 70s who had recently traveled and a woman in her 50s [source]

    - 11 in Québec [source

  • 724 new cases and 11 new deaths in the United States 

    - All New York City schools will shut down immediately and stay closed for at least 1 month [source]  All hospitals will be required to cancel elective surgeries

    - Illinois: all bars and restaurants to close to dine-in customers through March 30 [source

    Ohio: all bars and restaurants will close Sunday at 9 p.m. indefinitely ‘This is a once in a lifetime pandemic’ said Gov. Mike DeWine [source

    New deaths include:

    - at least 3 new deaths in New York: a 79-year-old woman, a 78-year-old man, and a 53-year-old woman with diabetes and heart disease  [source

    - 2 new deaths in King County (WA) [source

    - Death of a female in her 50s in New Jersey  [source

    - First death in Oregon: a 70-year-old man in Portland who had tested positive just four days ago and reportedly had other health problems. [source]   

    New cases include:

    - First case in Howard County (MD). County Executive Calvin Ball has declared a state of emergency and announced that The Mall in Columbia and other commercial gathering places will be closed for at least a week  [source

    - 32 new cases in King County (WA)  [source

    - 2 new cases in Schenectady County (NY), which declares State of Emergency [source

    - First 2 cases in Putnam (NY)  [source

    - FIrst case in San Bernardino County (CA? a woman who recently returned from London  [source

    - 6 new cases in Suffolk Country (New York) [source

    - 9 new cases in North Carolina, just one day after adding 8. Total now reaches 32 [source

    - 4 new cases in Indiana, including the first in Hamilton County. Marion County’s case total has doubled since Saturday from 3 to 6 [source]

    - 39 new cases and 1 new death in Florida: a 77-year-old from Lee County is the fourth Florida resident to die after testing positive for coronavirus  [source]

    - 2 new cases in Hawaii (on Maui and Oahu). Details have emerged regarding the latest 2 cases in Kauai: a couple who had traveled from Indiana arriving in Maui on March 2. Shortly after their arrival, one of the visitors developed a fever, shortness of breath and cough and went to an urgent care facility. On March 7, the second visitor also developed symptoms and went to urgent care. A day later, both of the visitors flew to Kauai, staying at the Kauai Marriott, and on March 9, one of the visitors visited again an urgent care facility. Finally, on March 12, the two informed health care workers that they had close contact with an individual who had tested positive for coronavirus. 2 health care workers in Maui and 1 in Kauai are now in self-isolation because they were not wearing protective equipment  [source]

    - 9 new cases in Utah (Salt Lake County) [source] First case of community spread identified [source]

    - 8 new cases in Michigan [source]

    - First case in San Luis Obispo County (California): a person over the age of 65 with underlying health conditions who exhibited a fever, cough, and shortness of breath [source]

    - 1 new case in Missouri: a person in their 20s who had traveled to Austria [source]

    - 2 emergency room doctors (in NJ and WA) are in critical condition after treating patients with COVID-19, according to reports  [source]

  • 1 new death in Guatemala:  a 85 year old man from San Pedro Sacatepequez who came back to Guatemala from Madrid on March 6th [source]
  • 49 new cases in Brazil [source]
  • 1 new case in Argentina: a 4-year-old boy from Resistencia who contracted the disease from a relative who tested positive after returning from one of the countries at risk [source]
  • 145 new cases in Norway [source]
  • 19 new cases in Iceland [source]
  • 8 new cases and 2 new deaths in San Marino [source]
  • 12 new cases in Turkey: 7 new cases are from Europe, 3 new cases from the USA, and 2 new cases are relatives of the first case [source] [source]
  • 15 new cases in Venezuela: including 3 who had returned from Spain, 2 from the United States, 1 from Colombia and 2 Venezuelans who had been in contact with some of them. The national government will implement mandatory social quarantine starting tomorrow March 16 in 7 states of the country: Caracas, La Guaira, Miranda, Zulia, Apure, Cojedes and Táchira [source] [source]
  • 1 new case in Cameroon: a 34-year-old Cameroonian citizen who arrived from Belgium through Paris. Yesterday, the third case confirmed in the country was a Cameroonian citizen from Italy who arrived on March 7 through Paris. Health Ministry urged passengers of the flights related to the cases to urgently call a dedicated number and quarantine for 14 days [source] [source]
  • 4 new cases in Rwanda [source]
  • alert.png 4 new cases in Uzbekistan: an Uzbek woman arriving from France on March 15. All family members were also infected and are now hospitalized at the Republican Scientific Research Institute of Virology [source] [source]
  • 9 new cases in Ecuador [source]
  • 16 new cases in Egypt [source]
  • 26 new cases in Luxembourg, restaurants and cafes close [source]
  • alert.png 251 new cases and 14 new deaths in the United Kingdom. "Getting through this is going to be a national effort. Every single person in this country is going to be affected" said UK's Health Secretary Matt Hancock, adding that soon every Briton over the age of 70 will be asked to remain at home for up to 4 months and have groceries and vital medication delivered. Wartime-like measures will ask carmakers to produce medical equipment and turn hotels into hospitals [source] [source] [source]
  • 8 new cases in Costa Rica. Ministry of Health announces closure of all bars, clubs, and casinos [source] [source]
  • alert.png 1452 new cases and 96 new deaths in Spain [source]
  • alert.png 924 new cases and 36 new deaths in France [source]
  • 79 new cases and 1 new death in Sweden [source] [source]
  • 15 new cases in Saudi Arabia
  • 12 new cases in India [source]
  • 28 new cases in Peru
  • 41 new cases in Ireland
  • 17 new cases in Mexico [source]
  • 14 new cases in Iraq:  all in the Sulaymaniyah province and connected to each other
  • 17 new cases in Slovakia. State of Emergency declared. All retail stores except food, drugstores, pharmacies, newspapers, post offices, banks, gas stations, and pet food stores will be closed for 14 days. Only necessary surgery will be performed in hospitals. Restaurants will only deliver [source]
  • 1 new case in China, Macao SAR, a South Korean woman who had returned from Portugal. It is the first case in Macau in 40 days. All 10 previously confirmed cases recovered [source]   [source]
  • 1 new case in Seychelles [source]
  • 1214 new cases and 2 new deaths in Germany [source]
  • 1 new case in Bahamas: a 61-year old woman with no travel history [source
  • 9 new cases in Jordan [source]
  • 23 new cases in South Africa. President Ramaphosa declares a “National State of Disaster”: a ban is imposed on travel from and to Iran, South Korea, United Kingdom, USA, Germany, Italy and China. In addition to schools being closed and  gatherings of more than 100 people prohibited:

     

    - all travellers who have entered South Africa from high-risk countries since mid-February will be required to present themselves for testing

    - travellers from medium-risk countries (such as Portugal, Hong Kong and Singapore) will be required to undergo high intensity screening

     “Never before in the history of our democracy has our country been confronted with such a severe situation” – President Cyril Ramaphosa [source[source]

  • 2 new cases in Tunisia: 2 idividuals who had returned from France  [source]
  • alert.png 3590 new cases and 368 new deaths in Italy [source] [source]
  • 2 new cases in Jamaica [source]
  • 2 new cases in Serbia
  • 56 new cases in Estonia [source]
  • 4 new cases in Andorra [source]
  • 35 new cases and 2 new deaths in Japan [source]
  • 64 new cases in Qatar [source]
  • 13 new cases in the United Arab Emirates: all cases are travel related [source]
  • 5 new cases in Cambodia: a 35-year old Frenchman who traveled to Singapore  [source]
  • 6 new cases in Armenia [source]
  • 14 new cases in Chile [source]
  • 20 new cases in Israel: the total number of cases in Israel is now 213, including 18 healthcare workers. The Shin Bet, Israel’s domestic security service, confirmed that it was examining the use of its technological capabilities to fight coronavirus.  Netanyahu described the virus as an “invisible enemy that must be located." "In all my years as prime minister I have avoided using these means among the civilian public but there is no choice,” Netanyahu said. [source] [source]
  • 103 new cases and 1 new death in Greece: a 53-year-old man who had been hospitalized for several days [source]
  • 3 new cases in Ethiopia [source]
  • 3 new cases in Bosnia and Herzegovina [source]
  • 8 new cases in Sri Lanka: 7 people who had returned from Italy and a 45-year old man who had been in Germany with a previously confirmed case [source]
  • 7 new cases in China, Hong Kong SAR [source]
  • 3 new cases in Kazakhstan including a woman in her 60s whose husband had been previously confirmed positive, and a man in his 20s that had arrived from Seoul [source] [source]
  • 2 new cases in Kenya [source]
  • 10 new cases in Bulgaria [source]
  • 11 new cases in Moldova including a child. Three are imported cases and 8 are community transmitted cases [source]
  • 16 new cases in Romania [source]
  • 3 new cases in Georgia
  • 3 new cases in Vietnam: a 33-year-old Latvian tourist, a 35-year-old German and a 30-year-old Englishman [source] [source]
  • 205 new cases in Austria [source]
  • 2 new cases in Oman: one who had traveled to Italy [source]
  • 10 new cases in Colombia [source]
  • 1 new case in Réunion [source]
  • 4 new cases in Russia [source]
  • 14 new cases in Singapore [source]
  • 4 new cases in Ghana: imported into the country [source] [source]
  • 38 new cases in Slovenia [source]
  • 10 new cases in Croatia [source]
  • 20 new cases in Pakistan [source]
  • 2 new cases and 1 new death in Hungary [source]
  • 176 new cases and 8 new deaths in the Netherlands [source]
  • 1st case in Congo: a person who had returned from France [source]  [source]
  • 2 new cases in Bahrain [source]
  • 3 new cases in Guyana: family of the deceased first confirmed case [source]
  • 52 new cases and 2 new deaths in Australia: a 90-year-old woman in Sydney and a 77-year-old woman from Noosaville who passed away after traveling to Sydney by plane [source]
  • 842 new cases and 1 new death in Switzerland [source]
  • 28 new cases and 1 new death in Denmark: an 81-year-old patient [source] [source]
  • 76 new cases in Portugal [source]
  • 4 new cases in Azerbaijan [source]
  • 10 new cases in Brunei Darussalam: Bruneians are barred from traveling out of the country as a measure to contain the importation of new COVID-19 cases into Brunei.
    Permission for traveling is only applicable for urgent matters [source]
  • 10 new cases in Morocco [source]
  • 4 new cases in Albania: 2 of the cases are doctors [source]
  • 1209 new cases and 113 new deaths in Iran [source]
  • 3 new cases in Malta [source]
  • 9 new cases and 1 new death in Algeria: an 84-year-old woman [source]
  • 6 new cases in Lebanon [source]
  • 190 new cases in Malaysia [source]
  • 197 new cases in Belgium [source]
  • 3 new cases in Liechtenstein [source]
  • 3 new cases in Maldives: a foreign national from Anantara Dhigu, and 2 persons from the Island Safari boat [source] [source]
  • 1 new case in Faeroe Islands [source]
  • 1 new case in Saint Lucia: a 53-year-old man who had traveled to France [source]
  • 19 new cases in Finland. Tracking numbers is no longer meaningful, because not all of those who have symptoms can be tested, said Asko Järvinen, chief of HUS Infectious Diseases [source] [source]
  • 1 new case in Burkina Faso [source]
  • 1s case in the Central African Republic: a 74-year-old Italian who had recently been in Milan [source]
  • 2 new cases in Côte d'Ivoire [source]
  • First 3 cases in Guam: 2 people who had traveled to Guam from Manila, and 1 person with no recent travel history, in their 60s [source]
  • 29 new cases and 3 new deaths in the Philippines [source]
  • 4 new cases in Latvia [source]
  • 6 new cases in Taiwan [source]
  • 8 new cases in Kuwait [source]
  • 32 new cases in Thailand [source]
  • 21 new cases in Indonesia [source]
  • 5 new cases in Afghanistan [source]
  • 76 new cases and 3 new deaths in South Korea [source]
  • 20 new cases, 10 new deaths (all in Hubei) and 1,370 new discharges occurred in China on March 14, as reported by the National Health Commission (NHC) of China [source]

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

Jeg har ikke maktet å se på The Guardian på noen dager:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/13/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-share-markets-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/14/coronavirus-live-updates-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-school-shutdown-sport-events-cancelled-latest-update-news

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-latest-updates-trump-tests-negative-as-spain-orders-nationwide-lockdown-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy

 

Denne var interessant

Quote

A group of more than 240 UK scientists have denounced the government’s plan to achieve “herd immunity” by delaying measures to prevent the virus spreading. The group said that enforcing social distancing now could save “thousands of lives”.

 

Cannabis

Quote
The Hague coffee shops shut due to coronavirus

 People queue outside a cannabis coffee shop in The Hague, after the Dutch government ordered the closing of all schools, bars, restaurants, sex clubs and cannabis cafes on 15 March in a bid to fight the spread of COVID-19. Photograph: Sara Magniette/AFP via Getty Images

Cannabis smokers queued up outside Dutch “coffee shops” on Sunday after the government ordered their closure due to the coronavirus outbreak.

Customers lined up in their dozens as they tried to beat a 6pm deadline for the closure of the marijuana cafes and stockpile supplies for what could be weeks of lockdown.

“For maybe for the next two months we’re not able to get some weed so it should be nice to at least have some in the house,” Jonathan, a Dutch buyer, said outside The Point coffee shop in The Hague.

The queues built up minutes after the Dutch health and education ministers gave a televised press conference announcing the closure of many businesses, along with all Dutch schools.

 

Pub'er

Quote

All pubs and bars in the Republic of Ireland have been ordered to close from Sunday evening to tackle the Covid-19 outbreak.

 

A sign on the door of The Temple Bar in Dublin, as pubs and clubs in Irish tourist hotspot Temple Bar closed with immediate effect amid Covid-19 fears. A sign on the door of The Temple Bar in Dublin, as pubs and clubs in Irish tourist hotspot Temple Bar closed with immediate effect amid Covid-19 fears. Photograph: Aine McMahon/PA

In a statement, the government said: “Following discussions today with the Licenced Vintners Association (LVA) and the Vintners Federation of Ireland (VFI), the Government is now calling on all public houses and bars (including hotel bars) to close from this evening (Sunday 15th March) until at least 29 March.

“The LVA and VFI outlined the real difficulty in implementing the published Guidelines on Social Distancing in a public house setting, as pubs are specifically designed to promote social interaction in a situation where alcohol reduces personal inhibitions.

“For the same reason, the Government is also calling on all members of the public not to organise or participate in any parties in private houses or other venues which would put other people’s health at risk.”

 

No indoor mass gatherings of more than 100 people applies to pubs & clubs. Have asked NPHET for further expert guidance on this. May seek enforcement powers from Dail/Seanad.

 
 

 

Endret av G
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USA, opplever falske testkits

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A package containing suspected counterfeit Covid-19 testing kits arriving from the UK was seized by US customs and border protection at LAX airport.

The fake kits had been labelled as “purified water vials”. They have been turned over to the FDA for analysis.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-latest-updates-trump-tests-negative-as-spain-orders-nationwide-lockdown-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy?page=with:block-5e6e5e008f085c6327bc0516#liveblog-navigation

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55 minutes ago, Elgen-Hansi said:

Hvorfor mener du at 1/4 tester positivt sier noe om mørketallene???

Det er mer 1/6 enn en 1/4, og det er klart at antallet testet vil si noe om mørketall...

Hvordan man velger å tolke det blir noe annet, men det er ikke tvil om at mørketall og antallet positive/testet gir en indikasjon på mørketall.

For å ta et ekstremeksempel; hadde man testet 10.000 mistenkte for HIV og funnet 2 tilfeller ville man hatt ganske grei statistikk.

 

For øvrig har Italia nå 7.3% døde av alle som har fått bekreftet smitte. Dette er ekstreme tall.... og stigende! Hva som vil skje når helsevesenet ikke kan behandle flere er ikke godt å si, og trolig har ser vi allerede begynnelsen på det...

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A clinical trial evaluating a vaccine designed to protect against the new coronavirus will begin Monday, according to a US government official.

The first participant in the trial will receive the experimental vaccine on Monday, the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity because the trial has not been publicly announced yet.

The National Institutes of Health is funding the trial, which is taking place at a Kaiser Permanente research facility in Washington state, the official said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/15/coronavirus-latest-updates-trump-tests-negative-as-spain-orders-nationwide-lockdown-uk-us-australia-italy-europe-global-economy

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