Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[Brother Ursus]

11 hours ago, Kahuna said:

Norge skal anskaffe sjøminer som en del av opprustningen.

Vi kvittet oss med sjøminer etter den kalde krigen, nå skal vi få dem på nytt i følge denne aftenposten-artikkelen. 
https://www.aftenposten.no/norge/i/769OdK/sjoeminene-ble-skrotet-for-20-aar-siden-naa-er-de-paa-vei-tilbake

'Morten Nakjem er forskningsleder for maritim minekrigføring ved Forsvarets forskningsinstitutt (FFI).

Han sier moderne sjøminer er selvstyrende og kan tilpasses på forskjellig vis til forskjellige mål. 

-De har avanserte sensorer og prosesseringssystemer som automatisk detekterer og klassifiserer passerende mål, sier han'

Bra. Nå trenger vi antipersonellminer og klasevåpen.

[Uderzo]

Stenges en liten stund for opprydning.

Gjenåpnet.

Endret 13. april 2024 av Uderzo

[superrhino]

I 2008-14 var det europeerne som trådte forsiktig for ikke å eskalere. Nå er det europeerne som sitter igjen med hele regninga. Skandaløst

[Brother Ursus]

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.rawstory.com/trump-2667758086/

Trump mocked after insider admits ex-president 'couldn't get his head around' basic fact

Former adviser Fiona Hill reports in a new book reviewed by the Guardian that Trump, as president, had a hard time understanding Ukraine was a country.

“Trump made it very clear that he thought, you know, that Ukraine, and certainly Crimea, must be part of Russia,” Hill reportedly said. “He really could not get his head around the idea that Ukraine was an independent state.”

 

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://news.err.ee/1609311108/minister-to-propose-classing-moscow-patriarchate-church-as-terror-organization

[Estonian] Minister to propose classing Moscow Patriarchate church as terror organization

 

 

[Gjest MKII]

12 minutes ago, Brother Ursus said:

Synd: Det er en helt annen sak med tvangsmobiliserte russere som tvinges til å kjempe mot sin vilje, og til dels også med indoktrinerte, men for utenlandske statsborgere som FRIVILLIG VELGER å sloss for raZZland så er det å behandles som kveg en ALT for god behandling... 😠

Endret 13. april 2024 av Gjest MKII

[Brother Ursus]

 

Dette ser sinnsykt ut. Det er vel slikt man gjør når man ikke har artilleri også... heldigvis ser det ikke ut til at noen i den ukrainske Humbee'n ble skadet.

[torbjornen]

Brother Ursus skrev (9 minutter siden):

Eg kan ikkje akkurat seie at eg er overraska.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.euronews.com/2024/04/13/how-17-year-old-ukrainian-valeriia-escaped-a-russian-re-education-camp

How 17-year-old Ukrainian Valeriia escaped a Russian re-education camp

17-year-old Ukrainian Valeriia was abducted to a Russian re-education camp in Crimea. She tells Euronews how she made it back to Ukraine on her own.

Lang artikkel, men interessant.

[Brother Ursus]

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4591066-speaker-johnson-ukraine-aid/

Speaker Johnson’s perilous moment on Ukraine has finally arrived

After months of delay, Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) is poised to step formally into the perilous debate over Ukraine aid — an explosive topic that carries high stakes for both the future of Kyiv’s sovereignty and the fate of Johnson’s Speakership.

Since taking the gavel in October, Johnson has vowed to move another round of military help for Ukraine’s beleaguered forces in their fight against Russia. But the issue has taken a back seat to domestic concerns with hard deadlines, including efforts to fund the government and renew Washington’s foreign surveillance powers.

With those priorities in the rearview mirror, Johnson is now shifting gears to tackle a package of emergency foreign aid — including new assistance for Ukraine, Israel and Indo-Pacific allies — that’s expected to hit the floor next week, according to sources in both parties.

 

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-post/sanctions-are-spoiling-russias-plans-make-its-own-airplanes

Sanctions Are Spoiling Russia’s Plans to Make Its Own Airplanes

"Announced in June 2022, the program calls for the state-owned industrial conglomerate Rostec to manufacture 1,036 airplanes with only Russian parts by 2030. In January 2024, the state allocated 283 billion rubles (U.S. $3.1 billion) to help finance the production of 609 airplanes and prioritize medium-haul aircraft in the overall manufacturing plan."

"Among the aircraft slated to replace Boeings and Airbuses, the plan called for production in 2023 of three medium-haul Tupolev-214 (Tu-214) airplanes and two Superjet-NEW planes (Superjet-100s with all-Russian parts). None of these were built. In fact, the state-owned United Aircraft Corporation (UAC) failed to manufacture a single passenger airplane in 2023."

"The transition to total import substitution is proving difficult, making it impossible to fulfill early targets of the manufacturing plan. By withdrawing access to Western technology critical for manufacturing, sanctions have successfully shut down production. Russian manufacturers will produce at best inferior aircraft that fly shorter routes using more fuel. "

"At its current rate, the UAC is unlikely to manufacture more than a dozen or so showcase narrow body airplanes before 2030."

[Thor.]

2 år siden i dag:

 

 

Trump mocked after insider admits ex-president 'couldn't get his head around' basic fact
https://www.rawstory.com/trump-2667758086/
“Trump made it very clear that he thought, you know, that Ukraine, and certainly Crimea, must be part of Russia,” Hill reportedly said. “He really could not get his head around the idea that Ukraine was an independent state.”

[torbjornen]

Då får ein håpe at det endeleg kan skje noko, og at hjelpa kan nå fram før det er for seint. Elles burde hjelpa som er avsett til Israel ha gått til Ukraina. Israel har drepe mange nok palestinarar og rasert Gaza med det som er.

[Gjest MKII]

1 minute ago, torbjornen said:

Då får ein håpe at det endeleg kan skje noko, og at hjelpa kan nå fram før det er for seint. Elles burde hjelpa som er avsett til Israel ha gått til Ukraina. Israel har drepe mange nok palestinarar og rasert Gaza med det som er.

Ja, det er sinnsykt at Israel, som i utganspunktet er overmektig sammenlignet med motstanderen, og som begår SÅ mange krigsforbrytelser og menneskerettighetsbrudd selv skal prioriteres fremfor Ukraina som snarere befinner seg i den stikk motsatte situasjonen!!!

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2024/04/11/russia-is-sure-to-lose-in-ukraine-reckons-a-chinese-expert-on-russia

Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia

Feng Yujun says the war has strained Sino-Russian relations

Artikkelen får jeg ikke lest da den er låst. Heldigvis gir Anton en oppsummering.

 

Feng Yujun, one of the China's leading Russianists and a professor at Peking University: Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine – The Economist Four reasons why Russian Federation will lose to Ukraine, according to Feng Yujun:  The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary.

The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad.

The third factor is the nature of modern warfare, a contest that turns on a combination of industrial might and command, control, communications and intelligence systems. One reason Russia has struggled in this war is that it is yet to recover from the dramatic deindustrialisation it suffered after the disintegration of the Soviet Union.

The final factor is information. When it comes to decision-making, Vladimir Putin is trapped in an information cocoon, thanks to his having been in power so long. The Russian president and his national-security team lack access to accurate intelligence.

The system they operate lacks an efficient mechanism for correcting errors. Their Ukrainian counterparts are more flexible and effective. His conclusion is as follows:  Russia will be forced to withdraw from all occupied Ukrainian territories, including Crimea.  Russia's nuclear capability is no guarantee of success. Feng Yujun gives the example of the United States, which left Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan with no less nuclear potential than the Russian Federation has today.

Kyiv has proven that Moscow is not invincible, so a ceasefire under the "Korean" scenario is ruled out.

The war is a turning-point for Russia. It has consigned Putin’s regime to broad international isolation. He has also had to deal with difficult domestic political undercurrents, from the rebellion by the mercenaries of the Wagner Group and other pockets of the military — for instance in Belgorod — to ethnic tensions in several Russian regions and the recent terrorist attack in Moscow. These show that political risk in Russia is very high. Mr Putin may recently have been re-elected, but he faces all kinds of possible black-swan events.

After the war, Ukraine will have the chance join both the EU and NATO, while Russia will lose its former Soviet republics because they see Putin's aggression there as a threat to their sovereignty and territorial integrity. According to Feng Yujun, the war, meanwhile, has made Europe wake up to the enormous threat that Russia’s military aggression poses to the continent’s security and the international order, bringing post-cold-war EU-Russia detente to an end. Many European countries have given up their illusions about Mr Putin’s Russia.

 

Mulig dette er et rosemalt scenario, men jeg er av liknende oppfatning. Jeg tror det er en sjans for at Russland vil holde på territorier i den kort-middels tidsramme, men ikke på sikt (år eller tiår). Det er også sjans for at det blir fastlåst. Men det internasjonale samfunnet vil ikke tilgi Russland med det første, slik at ting vil neppe normaliseres slik de har blitt i Korea. Mange fremholder at Russland vil klare seg best på sikt, men jeg er ikke så sikker på det. Russlands økonomi og demografi er i fritt fall, og før eller siden vil det sosiale briste også.

Endret 13. april 2024 av Brother Ursus

[bojangles]

4 hours ago, Dragavon said:

Problemet med Taurus-missilene er at styring og målsøkingssystemene er så integrert i dei tyske systemene at dei ikkje kan sende berre missiler til Ukraina. Ukraina ville ikkje kunne bruke dei.

 

Vel detaljene kjenner jeg ikke, men det høres jo det er temmelig enkelt å komme rundt. De kan enten gi UA opplæring som kreves eller sende noen tyskere som som kan bistå .

[Gjest MKII]

1 hour ago, bojangles said:

Vel detaljene kjenner jeg ikke, men det høres jo det er temmelig enkelt å komme rundt. De kan enten gi UA opplæring som kreves eller sende noen tyskere som som kan bistå .

Hvordan høres det enkelt å komme rundt hvis de er så integrert i tyske systemer at komplette og store komplekse systemer må sendes sammen med rakettene for at Ukraina skal kunne bruke de eventuellt? For å bruke en konstruert euforisme (langt på veg tatt ut av luften siden jeg ikke vet noe om hvor mye som faktiskt skal til for å kunne bruke Taurus): Ville du synes det er lettvindt å sende en knappenål hvis du også visste man måtte sende den sammen med høystakken...?

Vil det være enkelt å sende Taurus hvis systemene for å bruke de er stasjonære inne i bygninger, som nødvendigvis befinner seg i Tyskland for eksempel...???

Endret 13. april 2024 av Gjest MKII

[Brother Ursus]

https://english.nv.ua/nation/germany-emegrency-transfers-one-more-patriot-aor-defense-system-to-ukraine-amid-russian-attacks-50409797.html

Germany immediately provides additional Patriot air defense system to Ukraine amid Russian missile strikes

“We are supporting Ukraine as much as we can in terms of our own operational readiness,” Pistorius also said.

“Before this decision was made, I already advocated that new purchases be made as soon as possible, and we are working hard to replace (the Patriot system that Germany is transferring to Ukraine).”

 

Jo, men vi andre er ikke i krig akkurat nå, og vi har mange andre militære ben å stå på, ikke minst flyvåpen.