Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[romulv]

Homba skrev (18 minutter siden):

Kommer aldri til å skje.

Det satt folk og sa i 1999 også.

Men vips, så var serberne fjernet fra Kosovo. Uten folk på bakken engang.

Synes det er åpenbart at det vil interveneres dersom Kyiv f.eks. ser ut til å falle. En bombekampanje i Ukraina ville vært regelen i militære konflikter, heller enn unntaket. Russland har vist at de sitter stille i kroken når deres styrker skytes i filler i utlandet, som i Tyrkia, Syria og Irak. Putin kommer ikke til å gjøre noenting. 

Endret 22. august 2024 av romulv

[Homba]

romulv skrev (7 minutter siden):

Det satt folk og sa i 1999 også.

Men vips, så var serberne fjernet fra Kosovo. Uten folk på bakken engang.

Synes det er åpenbart at det vil interveneres dersom Kyiv f.eks. ser ut til å falle. En bombekampanje i Ukraina ville vært regelen i militære konflikter, heller enn unntaket. Russland har vist at de sitter stille i kroken når deres styrker skytes i filler i utlandet, som i Tyrkia, Syria og Irak. Putin kommer ikke til å gjøre noenting. 

Okei 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

Skulle gjerne sett en haug med Bradleys på lista mtp på hvor effektive de har vært for Ukraina. 

Endret 22. august 2024 av bojangles

[Jarmo]

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

 

chatgpt sammendrag:

Spoiler

The video discusses several key developments in the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia:

1. Destruction of Russian Ferry: A Ukrainian strike destroyed the Russian ferry "Conrad Trader" in the Port of Caucasus, loaded with oil or diesel. This ferry was vital for Russian supplies to Crimea and southern Ukraine.

2. Russian Airfield Strike: Ukraine successfully struck a Russian military airfield near Volgograd, damaging hangars and likely destroying several Su-34 fighter jets. The attack highlights Ukraine's capability to hit deep within Russian territory, potentially using drones or other long-range systems.

3. Drone Attacks: Ukraine's drones have been increasingly effective, targeting Russian infrastructure, including an oil storage facility in Rostov, which resulted in a massive fire that has been ongoing for several days.

4. Ukrainian Ground Advances: Ukrainian forces have made significant progress in the Kherson region, moving closer to key areas such as Kornuhivka. They are strategizing to cut off Russian supply routes and potentially trap Russian forces.

5. Russian Mobilization Issues: There is discussion about Russia’s potential need for further mobilization due to a lack of local resistance in occupied regions and high pessimism among Russian citizens about the war.

6. Air Force and International Support: Ukraine continues to receive international support, with the U.S. confirming that Ukraine can use Western-made weapons in its operations on Russian territory.

7. Russian Advances: Despite Ukrainian successes, Russia continues its offensive in certain areas, making gains near important locations like Tokmak and the southern part of the Luhansk region

Ifølge Dennys har Ukraina nå fått tillatelse fra USA til å benytte amerikanske våpen i russland inkl kursk. Dette var vel egentlig ikke en nyhet i seg selv da vi har sett bruk av HIMARS i kursk. Det ble ikke nevnt noe om long rane cruise eller ATACMS og det er vel strengt tatt nettopp det vi alle venter på. Siden det ikke ble nevnt er det vel trolig ikke noe som har endret seg på det punktet ennå. 

Heller ikke Noelreports sier noe om ATACMS....

Endret 22. august 2024 av bojangles

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

 

Chatgpt sammendrag:

Spoiler

The video provides a comprehensive overview of Ukraine’s current military situation as it continues its counteroffensive against Russian forces. The narrator, Jake, reports on day 16 of Ukraine's "special military operation" aimed at liberating the occupied territories, focusing on the significant advances made by Ukrainian forces.

Ukrainian Advances into Russian Territory

According to General Syrskyi, Ukraine has advanced 28 to 35 kilometers deep into Russian territory. The Ukrainian military now controls 93 Russian settlements, covering an area of 1,263 square kilometers. The video includes a map showing the Ukrainian-Russian border, highlighting the areas of Ukrainian control, marked in blue, and the locations of Russian and Ukrainian military units. Despite Ukraine's advances, the situation remains complex, with intense fighting still occurring in the region.

Strategic Importance of the River and Bridge Destruction

A key geographical feature in the region is a river that provides a strategic advantage to Ukrainian forces. The video details how Ukraine has systematically destroyed bridges over this river, leaving only one bridge partially intact, which is still crossable on foot. The narrator suggests that this may have been intentional, allowing Russian civilians a route to evacuate while hindering Russian military resupply efforts. Ukrainian forces have also destroyed several Russian pontoon bridges using drone strikes and HIMARS, preventing Russian troops from establishing new supply lines.

Russian Troops Trapped

Jake describes how approximately 3,000 Russian soldiers, mostly conscripts, are now trapped in the Glushkovo region, which spans around 600 to 700 square kilometers. These troops are cut off from food, water, and ammunition, making their situation increasingly desperate. Ukraine is expected to systematically clear this area, with the hope that the lack of supplies will force Russian conscripts to surrender.

Russian Military Challenges and Manpower Issues

The video discusses Russia's response to the Ukrainian advance, including the redeployment of troops from Chervonopopivka to the Kursk Oblast. Despite efforts to reinforce their positions, Russia is facing significant manpower shortages. The Kremlin is reportedly considering another wave of mobilization, which is unpopular among the Russian public and could further strain the country’s already struggling economy. The mobilization would likely involve veterans who are technically in the reserves but have not yet volunteered to fight.

The video also highlights internal debates in Russia, where there is growing frustration with the performance of conscripted soldiers. The narrator references a video plea from Russian parents whose son, a conscript, surrendered and is now in a Ukrainian POW camp. This plea contrasts with the harsh stance of some Russian ultra-nationalists, who argue that conscripts who surrender without a fight should not be exchanged.

Ukrainian Drone Strikes and Russian Military Setbacks

The video reports on a series of successful Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian military targets, including airfields and defense systems. Notably, a Russian military airfield in the Voronezh region, located 440 kilometers from the front lines, was heavily damaged by Ukrainian drones. Satellite images show significant destruction, including the loss of aircraft and extensive fires.

Another significant strike occurred at an airfield in the Smolensk region, where Ukrainian forces reportedly destroyed three Russian aircraft, including a MiG-31 and two Il-76 planes. These strikes are part of Ukraine’s broader strategy to weaken Russian military capabilities far behind the front lines.

Economic and Geopolitical Context

Jake also touches on Russia’s economic and geopolitical struggles, including the failure of a key gas pipeline project with China. The "Power of Siberia 2" pipeline, which was intended to supply Russian gas to China via Mongolia, has reportedly fallen through. China has not included the project in its development plans through 2028, leaving Russia without a crucial alternative market for its gas exports following the loss of European customers.

International Support for Ukraine

On a more positive note for Ukraine, the video mentions ongoing international support, including the Czech Republic’s use of frozen Russian assets to fund artillery for Ukraine and Canada’s allocation of over $7 million to support the reintegration of Ukrainian children. The United Nations has also committed $30 million to support Ukraine’s frontline areas, while the Netherlands is providing over 50 drone detection radars to bolster Ukrainian defenses.

Fundraising Efforts for Ukrainian Forces

Jake concludes the video with an update on his fundraising efforts to support the Ukrainian military. He expresses gratitude for the nearly $600,000 raised so far and encourages viewers to continue contributing to reach the $1 million goal. The funds are being used to provide essential equipment, such as vehicles for Ukrainian soldiers, which are crucial for operations like evacuations and supply runs. The video includes a message from a Ukrainian soldier thanking viewers for their support and highlighting the impact these donations have on the ground.

Final Thoughts

The video underscores the complexity and intensity of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, highlighting both the strategic successes of the Ukrainian military and the challenges facing Russian forces. It also emphasizes the importance of continued international support for Ukraine as it pushes forward with its counteroffensive

 

[bojangles]

[Brother Ursus]

6 hours ago, bojangles said:

Just a note: most of those Russian VDV airborne BMDs moving toward Kursk have anywhere from 7-15mm of aluminum armor.

Very thin armor and a lot of internal ammunition does not do great things for survivability.

 

Russland har rett og slett ikke særlig mye brukbart materiell igjen. Det er også den største grunnen til at Putin ikke mobiliserer - det ville påvirke populæriteten hans uten å gi noen nevneverdig økning i kampevne.

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

Budanov bekreftet at Ukraina ødela to Il-76 (store transportfly) og en Mig-31 (supersonisk interceptor) ved en annen flybase (ikke den som ble truffet i går) for noen få dager siden. I går ble en annen base i Rostov truffet, og det har antagelig gått med en del Su-24 og Su-34 der.

[Brother Ursus]

 

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

Rylsk er et større tettsted (ca 5000) langs motorveien, og en viktig logistisk hub i området. Det vil utgjøre et stort problem for russerne i Kursk dersom Ukraina tar den.

Samtidig ønsker Russland å ta Pokrovsk i Donetsk for å gjøre mye det samme, men jeg synes det lukter felle av Pokrovsk.

[Brother Ursus]

 

Selv om begge sider er på offensiven mister Russland fortsatt suverent mest utstyr. De mister også voldsomt mange stridsvogner og IFV sammenlignet med Ukraina, som mister flest MRAP og sivile kjøretøy. Hele poenget med vestlige MRAP er dog rask transport som skal redde livene til alle soldatene inni, slik at de er nesten laget for å kollapse om de blir truffet. Det er ikke dramatisk å miste mange slike kjøretøy. Det er også det Vesten gir flest av. F.eks ga Tyskland nettopp 400 MRAP i en ny pakke.

[Brother Ursus]

[Brother Ursus]

 

Finland skal ha en NATO-brigade på drøyt 5,000 personell 200-250km unna Sankt Petersburg, med bla. norske og svenske tropper.

[romulv]

Tror ikke Russland går tom for pansrede kjøretøy de neste par årene. De har for mange på lager, kan kjøpe inn fra vennligstilte land og bygger vel noe selv. 

Flyene derimot kan de nok fort gå tom for om disse brutale bombeangrepene mot flybasene deres får fortsette.

Synes også nato burde ordne et anslag på Kerchbrua slik at den ødelegges. Det ville mer enn noe annet styrke Ukraina i evt fredssamtaler.

[Brother Ursus]

3 minutes ago, romulv said:

Tror ikke Russland går tom for pansrede kjøretøy de neste par årene. De har for mange på lager, kan kjøpe inn fra vennligstilte land og bygger vel noe selv. 

Flyene derimot kan de nok fort gå tom for om disse brutale bombeangrepene mot flybasene deres får fortsette.

Synes også nato burde ordne et anslag på Kerchbrua slik at den ødelegges. Det ville mer enn noe annet styrke Ukraina i evt fredssamtaler.

Det er aldri slik at man plutselig slipper helt opp. Det går i rykk og napp. Men før man går tom så vil man vel forvente å se en lang periode med desperasjon etter å få tak i fler. Og det har vi sett ganske lenge nå. De har tømt store deler av deponiene sine (mye var nok ubrukelig), har gammelt skrap de fremdeles forsøker å sette i stand, har økt produksjon til et punkt hvor det går utover helsen til arbeiderne på fabrikkene som må jobbe doble skift (ofte uten overtidslønn), og Putin og andre har flydd rundt på tiggeturer til allierte og nøytrale makter. Jeg mistenker at han også har lagt ekstremt press på Lukasjenko for å få ting derfra. Og jeg lurer på om turen til Azerbaidjan og andre steder også var for å forhøre seg om muligheter til å få tak i materiell.