Snikpellik

Ja, et desperat iransk regime med ryggen mot veggen, hevnplaner og null skrupler er ekstremt farlig både for iranere og for verden.

Det som blir sagt under ed samt USAs etterretningstjenester og amerikanske seriøse medier er langt mer troverdige enn Trump og en pro-Putin konspirasjonsteoretiker. Jeg sier som Weiss i Foreign Policy, Gabbards plutselige u-sving er ren damage control etter beskjed fra Trump. Det er helt åpenbart.

Gabbard endrer plutselig totalt mening om hva hun under ed sa at et samlet amerikansk etterretningsvesen mener, etter Trump gikk ut og hevdet hun tok feil? Amerikanske medier har forøvrig publisert flere andre kilder på at Gabbards opprinnelige påstand stemmer. Det er for meg åpenbart at Trump synes det nå er upassende med hans retorikk at disse detaljene ble offentliggjort, fordi han sammen med Netanyahu ønsker å selge inn at Iran var så nære å ha ferdige atomvåpen at de ikke hadde noe annet valg enn å slå til nå. Derfor var det ubeleilig for hans historiefortelling at Gabbard fortalte hva USAs etterretning visste.

Israel sees no instability, cracks in Iranian regime's control amid IDF operations, officials say https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/iran-news/article-858439 “There are no indications that the central government in Tehran is losing control — quite the opposite. The Iranian regime appears to be tightening its grip,” the three officials said. One week since Israel launched strikes on Iran, there are still no signs of cracks or instability within the Iranian regime, three Israeli officials told The Jerusalem Post on Friday. “There are currently no indications that the central government in Tehran is losing control — quite the opposite. The Iranian regime appears to be tightening its grip,” the three officials said. Dr. Raz Zimmt, director of the Iran Program at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), is not surprised. “It’s not surprising that no cracks are visible,” he told the Post. “Most Iranians are hostile to the regime and oppose it, but there is a sense of national solidarity at the moment. Right now, the people are focused on one thing: survival. “When they see Israeli strikes causing casualties and destruction — even if the regime is unpopular — the immediate threat is seen as Israel. That’s why people are rallying around the flag. I emphasize — not around the regime, but most of their anger is currently directed at Israel.”

Israel says Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon. US intel says it was years away https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/us-intelligence-assessment-irans-nuclear-program-remains-unchanged-rcna213879 U.S. intelligence stands by its opinion that Iran has a large stockpile of enriched uranium but isn't close to creating a weapon. Trump said Wednesday that a weapon is “a few weeks” away.

Nytt nedslag i Haifa:

En håndgranat er blitt kastet mot hjemmet til den norske ambassadøren i Israel, skriver israelske journalister. Granat kastet mot den norske ambassadøresidensen i Israel https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/granat-kastet-mot-den-norske-ambassadoresidensen-i-israel-1.17462438

Exiled opposition leader says only Iranians can bring about regime change https://www.timesofisrael.com/exiled-opposition-leader-says-only-iranians-can-bring-about-regime-change/ As Netanyahu hints at removal of Khamenei, Maryam Rajavi, president of National Council of Resistance of Iran, maintains that ‘an alternative cannot be imposed from above’. The head of an Iranian opposition group outlawed by Tehran said Wednesday that it was for the Iranian people to overthrow her country’s Islamic regime, as Israel conducts an unprecedented air campaign to destroy its nuclear and ballistic missile programs. “The solution to this war and crisis lies in the overthrow of this regime and regime change by the Iranian people and their resistance,” Maryam Rajavi, president of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI), told a press conference at the European Parliament. The NCRI is the political wing of the People’s Mujahedin of Iran, which Tehran regards as a “terrorist” group. (…) “The only viable solution remains the overthrow of this regime by the people of Iran and the Iranian Resistance,” she added, while repeatedly stressing that her movement is the best option to lead the change. “The issue of the day in Iran — and the war that has been waged over it — is the nuclear question,” she said. “Yet the issue of Iran in its entirety goes far beyond this regime’s nuclear program. At its core, the conflict is between the people of Iran and the Iranian Resistance on one side, and religious tyranny on the other.”

En meningsmåling utført av Washington Post viser at flere amerikanere er imot enn for amerikanske luftangrep mot Iran. Av de 1000 spurte, er 45 prosent imot, 25 prosent for, og 30 prosent usikre, ifølge avisen. Republikanere er mer splittet enn demokrater, viser målingen. Blant republikanerne støtter nesten halvparten amerikanske luftangrep. To tredjedeler av demokratene er imot. De fleste uavhengige er også imot. Omtrent en av fem amerikanere mener Irans atomprogram er en «umiddelbar og alvorlig trussel» mot USA, mens nesten halvparten beskriver det som en «noe alvorlig trussel», viser undersøkelsen. Omtrent 4 av 10 amerikanere svarer at de er «veldig bekymret» for å bli involvert i en fullskala krig med Iran. President Donald Trump skal ha godkjent en angrepsplan, men avventer foreløpig ordren om angripe i påvente av betingelsesløs kapitulasjon fra iransk side. https://www.tv2.no/direkte/jpybz/siste-nytt/6853ede36d56efc862d0458b/dette-mener-amerikanere-om-krigen

En meningsmåling i Israel viser at 70% av israelere støtter angrepene mot Iran. https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/clear-majority-of-jewish-israelis-back-iran-strikes-most-arabs-opposed/

Iran truer med å stenge Hormuz-stredet. Dette ville i så fall tvinge verdenssamfunnet til handling, ettersom blant annet ca. 20% av all verdens olje passerer her. Det ville særlig rammet asiatiske land hardt. Dog er Irans økonomi også totalt avhengig av stredet. Medlem av iransk sikkerhetsråd truer med å stenge Hormuzstredet https://www.nrk.no/nyheter/krigen-mellom-israel-og-iran-1.17453480

Wall Street Journal melder at Israel begynner å gå tom for missiler til Arrow-luftvernsystemet, og at USA også begynner å merke forbruket. Israel Is Running Low on Defensive Interceptors, Official Says https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/israel-is-running-low-on-defensive-interceptors-official-says-fd64163d Israel is running low on defensive Arrow interceptors, according to a U.S. official, raising concern about the country’s ability to counter long-range ballistic missiles from Iran if the conflict isn’t resolved soon. The U.S. has been aware of the capacity problems for months, the official said, and Washington has been augmenting Israel’s defenses with systems on the ground, at sea and in the air. Since the conflict escalated in June, the Pentagon has sent more missile defense assets into the region, and now there is concern about the U.S. burning through interceptors as well. – A report in The Washington Post Tuesday cited a person briefed on US and Israeli intelligence, who said that, according to “some assessments,” Israel can maintain its air defense for 10-12 days at the current rate of Iranian attacks — which have lessened since the start of the fighting last week — before it will require the US to replenish its stocks or get more involved in the war. The source also said that already by later this week, Israel “will need to select what they want to intercept,” adding: “The system is already overwhelmed.” Israel already chooses to allow some missiles to fall, when it knows they will land in open areas. However, when faced with large barrages, it has been unable to shoot down all missiles headed to population centers or critical infrastructure. https://www.timesofisrael.com/israel-running-low-on-arrow-interceptors-us-burning-through-its-systems-too-wsj/

Irans øverste leder Ali Khamenei kan ikke lenger «tillates å eksistere», sier den israelske forsvarsministeren Israel Katz – Khamenei erklærer åpent at han vil at Israel ødelegges. Han gir personlig ordre om å angripe sykehus. Han anser ødeleggelse av staten Israel som et mål, sa Katz torsdag til journalister i Holon, i nærheten av Tel Aviv. – En slik man kan ikke lenger tillates å eksistere, la han til. Tidligere torsdag sa statsminister Benjamin Netanyahu at de iranske lederne vil betale dyrt for rakettangrepet som rammet et sykehus i Sør-Israel. Flere personer ble lettere såret i dette angrepet. https://www.tv2.no/direkte/jpybz/siste-nytt/6853e02396bd5c150e2c6203/israels-forsvarsminister-irans-overste-leder-ali-khamenei-kan-ikke-lenger-tillates-a-eksistere

I morgentimene i dag sendte Iran rundt 30 ballistiske missiler. Flere av dem slapp gjennom det israelske luftforsvaret og rammet blant annet sykehuset i Beersheba med et direkte treff. Heavy damage, injuries as Iranian missile hits Beersheba hospital; dozens hurt in central cities https://www.timesofisrael.com/heavy-damage-injuries-as-iranian-missile-hits-beersheba-hospital-dozens-hurt-in-central-cities/ Iran fired a barrage of some 30 ballistic missiles early Thursday, scoring a direct hit on Israel’s main southern hospital, the Soroka Medical Center, and two other impacts in the central cities of Holon and Ramat Gan that wounded dozens of people, including six in serious condition.

Kan virke som en bagatell, men; selv om det var en del NATO-land som deltok i Libya, var det ikke "NATOs luftangrep" selv om deler av operasjonen til koalisjonen (deriblant embargoen) etterhvert ble koordinert av NATO etter Italia kom inn og krevde dette. Selve målutvelgelsene og angrepene ble koordinert av de individuelle landene som deltok, hvorav flere ikke var NATO-medlemmer.

De er helt uavhengige av iranske komponenter. https://www.csis.org/analysis/drone-saturation-russias-shahed-campaign

Ifølge ekspertene: https://www.vg.no/nyheter/i/wgBVMA/krig-iran-israel-tre-mulige-veier-for-krigen

Russland har ikke fått leveranser av Shahed-droner fra Iran på lenge. Dessverre masseproduserer Russland selv Shahed-droner nå, på fabrikken i Yelabuga. Med smuglet vestlig elektronikk og kinesiske komponenter, helt uavhengig av Iran.

Det kan ha med evakuering av kinesiske borgere å gjøre, eller levering/henting av materiell. Enten eget materiell, eller materiell til iranerne. Kanskje en kombinasjon.

Israelske medier (Channel 12) melder nå at USA er nær en beslutning om å bli med i krigen og angripe Irans atomanlegg - allerede i kveld. https://mako.co.il/news-world/2025_q2/Article-2817ef9d5de7791026.htm?pId=173113802&main_article=3

Israel har ikke signert fordi Israels linje er å ikke si om de har atomvåpen eller ei. De har aldri offisielt innrømmet å ha atomvåpen.

Trump nå: Absurd lesning fra en amerikansk president. Legg merke til bruken av ordet "we". Her bekrefter Trump amerikansk delaktighet.

At det var opptil tre år unna å kunne lage atomvåpen, og at de har alt de trenger for å lage atomvåpen er ikke motstridende. Artikkelen hos CNN: Israel says Iran was racing toward a nuclear weapon. US intel says it was years away When Israel launched its series of strikes against Iran last week, it also issued a number of dire warnings about the country’s nuclear program, suggesting Iran was fast approaching a point of no return in its quest to obtain nuclear weapons and that the strikes were necessary to preempt that outcome. But US intelligence assessments had reached a different conclusion – not only was Iran not actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, it was also up to three years away from being able to produce and deliver one to a target of its choosing, according to four people familiar with the assessment. Another senior US official told CNN that Iran is “about as close as you can get before building (a nuclear weapon). If Iran wanted one, they have all the things they need.” Now, after days of Israeli airstrikes, US intelligence officials believe that so far, Israel may have set back Iran’s nuclear program by only a matter of months, according to one of those people, a US official. Even as Israel has done significant damage to Iran’s facility at Natanz, which houses centrifuges necessary to enrich uranium, a second, heavily fortified enrichment site at Fordow has remained effectively untouched. Israel lacks the capability to damage Fordow without specific US weapons and aerial support, defense experts say. Mer: https://edition.cnn.com/2025/06/17/politics/israel-iran-nuclear-bomb-us-intelligence-years-away

Video viser en rekke nedslag like ved Mossads hovedkvarter ved Glilot i utkanten av Tel Aviv i dag. Mulig et eller to bygg tilknyttet Mossad ble truffet. Omtrentlig geolokalisering: