Russlands invasjon av Ukraina [Ny tråd, les førstepost]

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.newsweek.com/satellite-data-russia-tank-losses-ukraine-war-1918313

Satellite Data Suggests Russia May Be Running Out of Tanks

German newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung (SZ) trained an AI model to examine satellite imagery of 87 Russian military sites—including 16 bases where tanks, artillery vehicles and armored personnel carriers are stored.

The AI model counted the number of tanks at these key sites prior to the beginning of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, up until the present day, to determine the scale of the country's tank losses in the war.

One of these bases, the 111th Central Tank Reserve Base of the Army in southeastern Russia, which housed 857 tanks in April 2021, is now nearly empty, satellite imagery suggests. Just months into the war, in October 2022, Russia had lost nearly half of these tanks, the newspaper found. Analysis of other military sites painted a similar picture, SZ said.

Michael Gjerstad is a research analyst for defense and military analysis at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). He told SZ that he estimates Russia "still has around 3,200 tanks in stock."

"But the vast majority of them are in a bad condition and require significant repairs," Gjerstad said.

Dutch open-source intelligence defense analysis website Oryx has visually confirmed that 2,144 Russian tanks have been destroyed, 159 damaged, 352 abandoned, and 518 captured since the start of the full-scale war in Ukraine.

Oryx has added that 581 Ukrainian tanks have been destroyed since the beginning of the war, with 72 damaged, 67 abandoned, and 134 captured.

 

[Homba]

Brother Ursus skrev (10 minutter siden):

Yesn't? hehe

De "små" (som ofte ikke er så små) krever omtrent samme basisvedlikehold på mekanismen, men mye mindre tritium som må erstattes. De er også myntet på å festes på krysserraketter og fly - som sansyneligvis er "ferskere" og bedre vedlikeholdt enn de store rakettene (interkontinentale ICBM). Russland har ICBM med både solid og flytende drivstoff. De med flytende er de som krever mest.

Vet vi om russerne produserer nok tritium til atomvåpnene sine selv? 

De har 11 kjernekraftverk med til sammen 38 reaktorer, hvis den kilden jeg fant er korrekt. 

[Brother Ursus]

Just now, Homba said:

Vet vi om russerne produserer nok tritium til atomvåpnene sine selv? 

De har 11 kjernekraftverk med til sammen 38 reaktorer, hvis den kilden jeg fant er korrekt. 

De har den tekniske evnen, men det spørs om de har viljen til å gjøre det, mtp. innsats og kostnad.

Hadde ikke overrasket meg overhodet om bare en fraksjon av atomvåpnene de har faktisk fungerer (man trenger tross alt ikke tusenvis av stridshoder). En av tingene Putin varslet var oppgradering av ICBM-evnen. I realiteten spørs det om Russland har noen særlig fler operative ICBM enn f.eks Kina, Storbritannia eller Frankrike, som antagelig har et par hundre hver.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.newsweek.com/putin-russia-top-banker-dire-warning-economy-1918027

Putin's Top Banker Issues Dire Warning on Economy: 'Ruination'

Moscow must find other ways to pay for exports or its sanctions-hit economy faces "ruination" one of President Vladimir Putin's top bankers has said, following moves by Chinese lenders to suspend transactions with Russian banks.

The comments by Vladimir Chistyukhin, the first deputy chairman of the Bank of Russia, come after a decision by the Russian division of the Bank of China to stop processing yuan payments with Russian banks sanctioned by the U.S.

 

[Brother Ursus]

USAs 155mm granatproduksjon har nå nådd ca. 50.000 i måneden. En ny fabrikk åpner også i Texas over sommeren.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-considering-downgrading-relations-with-west-kremlin-says-2024-06-27/

Russia mulling downgrading ties with West, Kremlin says

A downgrading of relations - or even breaking them off - would illustrate the gravity of the confrontation between Russia and the West over Ukraine after an escalation in tensions over the war in recent months.

Even during the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, when the Cold War is thought to have come closest to nuclear war, Russia did not sever relations with the United States, though Moscow did break off ties with Israel over the 1967 Middle East war.

 

[bojangles]

 

[bojangles]

1 hour ago, Brother Ursus said:

Et fly også, gitt!

 

[bojangles]

Quote

Belarus forsterker grensen til Ukraina 

Grensetjenesten til Belarus og landets forsvarsdepartement gjør tiltak for ytterligere å forsterke grensen til Ukraina etter en sikkerhetshendelse, sa den hviterussiske grensetjenesten i en uttalelse fredag, ifølge Reuters.

Ifølge grensetjenesten hadde ansatte skutt ned en drone onsdag, etter at den ulovlig hadde krysset grensen fra Ukraina for å samle informasjon om belarusisk grenseinfrastruktur.

Ukraina har ikke bekreftet påstanden.

Om belarus "forsterker" grensen mot Ukraina er det neppe for at de forventer at Ukraina skal angripe belarus. Vi vet det er styrker fra nord-korea på vei - ikke utenkelig at putin også har gjort avtaler med belarus slik at de også sikter seg inn på Ukraina?

[bojangles]

 

Endret 28. juni 2024 av bojangles

[bojangles]

 

[oddeh]

[Enceladus]

Russland har et problem i Vovchansk nord for Kharkiv etter at de forsøkte å åpne en ny front/avledningsmanøver/hva enn det var for noe? Det går ikke så bra for dem der, særlig etter at amerikanerne tillot bruk av deres våpen over grensa. Hvordan skal de trekke seg tilbake i god orden?

Hør fra 38:30 i Ukraine the latest podkasten: https://pca.st/podcast/24275080-7c48-013a-d7c8-0acc26574db2

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.technology.org/2024/06/28/russia-wants-to-sue-ukrainians-for-destroying-a-50/

Russia wants to sue Ukrainians for destroying A-50

In times of war, military aircraft are legitimate targets. It would be hard to argue with that, right? Russians believe that its planes should be untouchable in the war against Ukraine as long as they are not carrying weapons.

"...it is now being reported that the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation is seeking to convict Ukrainians responsible for the downing of the A-50. According to Russians, that plane was unarmed and, therefore, was not a combat plane, not a legitimate target even in the times of war. Thus, Russia officially admitted that that particular A-50 was shot down by a Ukrainian missile and did not fall victim to some weird friendly fire accident. Also, Russia showed that it does not know what a military plane is. A plane does not need weapons to be considered a military aircraft."

 

Virkelighet rarere enn fiksjon, og alt det der...

[Brother Ursus]

28 minutes ago, Enceladus said:

Russland har et problem i Vovchansk nord for Kharkiv etter at de forsøkte å åpne en ny front/avledningsmanøver/hva enn det var for noe? Det går ikke så bra for dem der, særlig etter at amerikanerne tillot bruk av deres våpen over grensa. Hvordan skal de trekke seg tilbake i god orden?

 

 

 

HERLIG! 🥰

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2024/06/27/the-russians-may-have-lost-an-entire-airborne-brigade-in-vovchansk/

The Russians May Have Lost An Entire Airborne Brigade In Vovchansk

Russia’s Victory Day offensive is turning into a bloodbath ... for Russian troops.

Russia’s Victory Day offensive across Ukraine’s northern border with Russia may have aimed to capture a wide, deep swathe of territory to bring heavy artillery closer to the city of Kharkiv, 25 miles to the south. More ambitiously, Russian commanders may have hoped to march on Kharkiv itself.

Neither happened. Within a couple of weeks of the offensive kicking off on May 9—the day Russia celebrates its defeat of Nazi Germany in World War II—the force of 30,000 or so Russian troops got bogged down in the town of Vovchansk, just a few miles south of the border.

And now the defenders of Vovchansk, including some or part of several Ukrainian mechanized, marine and airborne brigades, have reportedly defeated an elite Russian airborne brigade.

 

Jeg har voldsomme tvil om hvor "elite" denne brigaden er. Nesten alle russiske enheter nå, selv på brigadenivå, er ad hoc, altså sammensatte av rusk og rask. Den eneste grunnen til at de fortsatt holder linjene i øst og i sør er fordi linjene er forberedte og har stått lenge. Troppene som ble sendt mot Kharkiv hadde basically ordre om å avansere til enhver pris. Nå vet vi hva den prisen er.

[Brother Ursus]

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/06/27/man-arrested-with-explosives-near-paris-airport-was-part-of-vast-russian-sabotage-campaign_6675959_7.html

Man arrested with explosives near Paris airport was part of vast Russian sabotage campaign

The 26-year-old Russian-Ukrainian was arrested in his hotel near Charles de Gaulle airport on June 3, after an accident while making explosives. He was planning to target a hardware store north of Paris, as part of a sabotage campaign orchestrated by Moscow.

 

https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7786/Artykul/3396408,police-probe-fire-at-production-plant-in-northern-poland

Police probe fire at production plant in northern Poland

 

[Brother Ursus]

 

 

[oddeh]

Can South Korean 105-Millimeter Ammunition Rescue Ukraine?
Public reports suggest South Korea has around 3.4 million 105 mm artillery shells, most which were once part of WRSA-K. These munitions would be compatible with all the 105 mm howitzers Ukraine operates.

Lending these munitions likely will not hurt South Korean military readiness. Less than 30 percent of howitzers operated by the South Korean military shoot 105 mm ammunition and the South Korean military is transitioning most units to 155 mm self-propelled howitzers like the domestically produced K9 Thunder.

https://www.csis.org/analysis/can-south-korean-105-millimeter-ammunition-rescue-ukraine

Kom igjen!

[Enceladus]

1 hour ago, Brother Ursus said:

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/france/article/2024/06/27/man-arrested-with-explosives-near-paris-airport-was-part-of-vast-russian-sabotage-campaign_6675959_7.html

Man arrested with explosives near Paris airport was part of vast Russian sabotage campaign

The 26-year-old Russian-Ukrainian was arrested in his hotel near Charles de Gaulle airport on June 3, after an accident while making explosives. He was planning to target a hardware store north of Paris, as part of a sabotage campaign orchestrated by Moscow.

 

https://www.polskieradio.pl/395/7786/Artykul/3396408,police-probe-fire-at-production-plant-in-northern-poland

Police probe fire at production plant in northern Poland

 

Nærmer vi oss ikke snart artikkel 5 her? Hvor mange slike terroraksjoner (utførte og planlagte) skal det til før den utløses?