Analyze This: Wrapping Up the Year in Gaming

[Knebel]

http://www.gamasutra.com/features/20061219/wen_01.shtml

 

They are the professional analysts whose job it is to research, keep track of, advise their clients, and opine to the media about the gaming business. Analyze This cuts right to the chase: Rather than reporting on a subject, and throwing in quotes by analysts to support or refute a point, Gamasutra offers up a timely question pertaining to the business side of the video game industry and simply lets the analysts offer their thoughts directly to you. Each person's opinion is his or her own and will (probably) not necessarily agree with their fellow colleagues'.

 

As the year 2006 winds down, the analysts take time to reflect and look back at how the industry fared this year...

 

Noen highlights:

 

Michael Pachter, Wedbush Morgan Securities er skuffet over utfallet mellom Xbox 360 vs PS2:

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The point is that early in the year, we thought that the PS2 was dead, and it suddenly jumped back to life in April. For the full year, sales on the platform are down only 7%, which is far better than anyone had forecast.

 

I'm pretty disappointed in the Xbox 360. I think Microsoft is doing everything right: Games are good; Xbox Live is amazing; and the console is not prohibitively expensive. Yet people are just not buying. The console is lagging behind my initial expectations by at least 200,000 units per month in the U.S., and I don't know why. It could be that publishers continue to support the PS2, so most consumers don't perceive a need to switch yet.

 

I think Microsoft over-promised on the 360, led a lot of consumers to believe that there would be millions at launch, and these consumers stopped buying anything (through March) while waiting for their Xbox 360s to arrive. Sony promised nothing (yes, they screwed up the quantities, but did not suggest that retailers advertise or take [PS3] pre-orders); consumers expected nothing, and [PS2] software sales were fine all year. It appears that as long as consumers have current generation titles to choose from, they will buy that software. I think that future declines in current generation software sales will continue to be more gradual than in past transitions.

 

David Mercer, Strategy Analytics undrer på om den nye generasjonen egentlig har begynt?

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The continued strength of the PS2, as it continues to out-sell the [Xbox 360], does raise the question as to whether a new generation has really begun. It supports Sony's view that systems should last for 10 years if they are going to generate sufficient payback on investment.

 

Nintendo's Wii was stronger than we had expected. But while we expect it to put in a good performance early on, doubts over its longevity remain.

 

For now, Microsoft and Nintendo can rest easy, but this time next year could be a whole new ballgame.

 

Ed Barton, Screen Digest forventer PS2 til å fortsette å selge en anseelig mengde software frem til 2008. MS lanserer killer appene sine på riktig tidspunkt under lansering til konkurrentene:

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Despite the emergence of next-gen hardware, we expect the PS2 to continue generating significant software volumes until 2008, especially as the Xbox and GameCube are no longer addressing the player demographics of cheaper consoles. The PS2 turned around a potential software market decline in 2006.

 

Looking forward [to] 2007, Microsoft looks like it is deepening its software library at exactly the right time to compete with two platforms which are just getting out the starting gate.

 

Colin Sebastian, Lazard Capital Markets sier at i hans øyne er Nintendos vekst den store saken i år. Spørsmålet er om de klarer å fremstå som robust for 3 parts utviklere eller om Wii og DS primært blir plattformer for Nintendo:

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The resurgence of Nintendo is the big story of the year, in my view. The remaining question is whether the DS and Wii can become robust platforms for third-parties over the coming years, or whether Nintendo hardware ends up primarily serving Nintendo software.

[_norse_]

hehe, analytikere er morsomme. De ble vel kalt spåkoner i gamle dager. Noen ganger føles det ut som at de bare slenger ting ut av seg uten noe belegg...synsere er vel et greit begrep å bruke om de.

[UrgeLoL]

Hvem som har peiling og ikke peiling er vanskelig å si. Man kan jo lett bli påvirket til å si at det er bare bullshit det de kommer med, bare på grunn av at de ikke sier masse positivt om favoritt konsollen din. Men noe som er sikkert er at dette som oftest er høyt utdannede personer som har kjennskap til markedet.

 

Samtidig så er det ikke så veldig mye fortunetelling i det de sier, de prater mer om året som gikk. Og må si meg enig med at det er imponerende at ps2 selger som hakkamøkk fremdeles.

[BlastyTrasty]

Eg har forøvrig stor sans for Michael Pachter.

[Mala]

Eg er imponert over PS2, og den kommer nok til å selge som fy ei godt stund enda. Kjøppte meg PS2 slim inkl. Buzz (eller fikk den va dama pga. alt maset mitt om den..) og 9 spill tidligere i høst eg, angrer ikkje eit sekund

 

Når eg tenker meg om har eg aldri handlet så mye spill relatert på så kort tid før (1år). 360+8 spill+Halo2. Samt 2 spill til GC. Ikkje minst Wii+2 spill. Mye tilbehør utenom også...nei eg vil egentlig ikkje legge sammen noen summer for i år

Endret 20. desember 2006 av Mala